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The Tony Awards, which will be held at Radio City Musical Hall on Sunday, June 10th, are only two weeks away, so it is time to make some predictions. As always, the award for Best Musical is the most debated award of the night. If they decide to pick the more intellectual choice, The Band’s Visit will take the prize, but if they decide to focus more on popular opinion and likability Mean Girls may be the surprise winner.

Several other categories are stacked with amazing nominees and are going to be very competitive. Susan Brown, Noma Dumezweni, Denise Gough, and Laurie Metcalf all have a great shot at Supporting Actress in a Play. For Set Design of a Musical, all five of the nominees produced amazing, award-worthy work. Norbert Leo Butz, Alexander Gemignani, Grey Henson, Gavin Lee, and Ari’el Stachel, are all favorites for Supporting Actor in a Musical, while the fight for Supporting Actress in a Musical seems equally and evenly split between Ashley Park and Lindsay Mendez, but Diana Rigg or Renee Fleming could be the surprise theater veteran win. Best Director of a musical is perhaps the most stacked category, since Michael Arden, David Cromer, Tina Landau, Casey Nicholaw, and Bartlett Sher all have such different styles but all executed such powerful visions.

Here is a full list of the “should wins” and the “will wins”:

Best Play
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Will Win: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Musical
Should Win: Mean Girls or SpongeBob SquarePants
Will Win: The Band’s Visit or Mean Girls

Best Revival of a Play
Should Win: Three Tall Women
Will Win: Angels in America

Best Revival of a Musical
Should Win: Once On This Island
Will Win: Carousel

Best Book of a Musical
Should Win: Mean Girls, Tina Fey
Will Win: Mean Girls, Tina Fey or The Band’s Visit, Itamar Moses

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Should Win: SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical, Music & Lyrics: Yolanda Adams, Steven Tyler & Joe Perry of Aerosmith, Sara Bareilles, Jonathan Coulton, Alex Ebert of Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros, The Flaming Lips, Lady Antebellum, Cyndi Lauper & Rob Hyman, John Legend, Panic! at the Disco, Plain White T’s, They Might Be Giants, T.I., and Domani & Lil’C
Will Win: The Band’s Visit, David Yazbek

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Should Win: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America
Will Win: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America or Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Should Win: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women
Will Win: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Should Win: Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants
Will Win: Joshua Henry, Carousel or Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Should Win: Katrina Lenk, The Band’s Visit
Will Win: Katrina Lenk, The Band’s Visit

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Should Win: Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Will Win: Nathan Lane, Angels in America

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Should Win: Denise Gough, Angels in America or Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women
Will Win: Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Should Win: Grey Henson, Mean Girls
Will Win: Ari’el Stachel, The Band’s Visit

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Should Win: Ashley Park, Mean Girls
Will Win: Ashley Park, Mean Girls or Lindsay Mendez, Carousel

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Should Win: Miriam Buether, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women
Will Win: Christine Jones, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Should Win: Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young, Mean Girls or David Zinn, SpongeBob SquarePants
Will Win: Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young, Mean Girls

Best Costume Design of a Play
Should Win: Ann Roth, Three Tall Women
Will Win: Katrina Lindsay, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Should Win: David Zinn, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
Will Win: David Zinn, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Should Win: Neil Austin, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Will Win: Neil Austin, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Should Win: Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, Once On This Island
Will Win: Tyler Micoleau, The Band’s Visit

Best Sound Design of a Play
Should Win: Adam Cork, Travesties
Will Win: Ian Dickinson for Autograph, Angels in America

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Should Win: Walter Trarbach and Mike Dobson, SpongeBob SquarePants
Will Win: Walter Trarbach and Mike Dobson, SpongeBob SquarePants

Best Direction of a Play
Should Win: Joe Mantello, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women
Will Win: John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

Best Direction of a Musical
Should Win: Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
Will Win: David Cromer, The Band’s Visit

Best Choreography
Should Win: Justin Peck, Carousel
Will Win: Justin Peck, Carousel

Best Orchestrations
Should Win: Tom Kitt, SpongeBob SquarePants or Annmarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin, Once On This Island
Will Win: Annmarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin, Once On This Island

Written by

Theater Critic and Queer Blogger. Vassar College alum, currently working toward a PhD at the CUNY Graduate Center.

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